And finally in The Hater’s Guide of Season Previews, it’s Formula 1’s turn to go under the microscope. 2024 was a surprisingly great season. Four different teams, and seven different drivers won multiple grand prixs. The Constructors Championship went down to the final day betwen two teams who had a combined 42 years of not winning the big one. And at the front, Max Verstappen remained the main character, while he had to face the new challenge of McLaren, and his team’s infighting becoming very public knowledge.
Let’s see what 2025 brings to the table. Welcome back to The Hater’s Guide.
The Calendar
| Round | Track | Date |
| 1 | Australia | March 16th |
| 2 (Sprint) | China | March 23rd |
| 3 | Japan | April 6th |
| 4 | Bahrain | April 13th |
| 5 | Saudi Arabia | April 20th |
| 6 (Sprint) | Miami | May 4th |
| 7 | Imola | May 18th |
| 8 | Monaco | May 25th |
| 9 | Spain | June 1st |
| 10 | Canada | June 15th |
| 11 | Austria | June 29th |
| 12 | Great Britain | July 6th |
| 13 (Sprint) | Belgium | July 27th |
| 14 | Hungary | August 3rd |
| 15 | Netherlands | August 31st |
| 16 | Italy | September 7th |
| 17 | Azerbaijan | September 21st |
| 18 | Singapore | October 5th |
| 19 (Sprint) | Americas (COTA) | October 19th |
| 20 | Mexico | October 26th |
| 21 (Sprint) | Brazil | November 9th |
| 22 | Las Vegas | November 22nd* (Saturday) |
| 23 (Sprint) | Qatar | November 30th |
| 24 | Abu Dhabi | December 7th |
Well, it’s an F1 calendar, at this point, you know what you’re signing up for. The season remains at the Concorde agreement maximum of 24 races. There’s a new agreement that will be signed this year, but every major stakeholder in the sport agrees that 24 is a hard “human” limit.
But there are clues to the sport’s future. The Sprint calendar is almost identical, with Belgium taking Austria’s spot as the only change. Speaking of Belgium, it signed a new six-year extension until 2031 but will only have Grand Prix events in four of those years (26, 27, 29, and 31). With Zandvoort already booked for its final appearance next year, it’s the first major shift the sport has made toward calendar rotation.
How deep this goes remains to be seen, but the two most vulnerable races on the calendar in no surprise, have been affected. Remember, there are still heavy rumblings for GPs in Thailand and South Korea as part of an Asian expansion, as well as African countries Rwanda and South Africa making public approaches for races. If you’re a European fan who’s had more than their fair share of the calendar since F1’s inception, those days may be numbered.
The Islamic month of Ramadan is going from February 28th to March 30th, so Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have been moved into April to compensate for that. We still have two Triple Headers and they’re front-loaded into the first nine races. I’m still not a fan of 24 races in general; the fact that Qatar and Las Vegas as an 8,000-mile round-trip is still a back-to-back and a season that goes deep into December, but this is the “24 Superbowl” approach that F1’s wanted since Liberty Media took over.
Seasonal Changes
The Fastest Lap point has been scrapped. After Zak Brown had a hissy fit over Daniel Ricciardo’s final flourish in Singapore and the potential collusion between the Red Bull sibling teams (Which has never really been a thing but it sounds plausible enough to buy into), the fastest lap bonus point has been removed for 2025. I’ve never really cared for it, I always thought it was stupid to see cars coming in with two or three laps left in a race just to go for a fastest lap attempt. It was always an exploited rule, and I’m glad it’s gone, it looked silly on TV.
If a qualifying session can’t run for a GP or a Sprint, the grid will now be decided on Drivers Championship Order ala NASCAR and IndyCar. It used to be at Stewards’ discretion as to how to form the grid.
There’s been an overhaul on testing. Teams now have to give up a practice session to a young driver twice per season, per car, instead of once. On top of that, there’s now a 20-day limit on two-year-old cars being tested across a season, with no current driver allowed more than 1,000 kilometres across four days.
The two big issues coming into 2025 – First of all, flexible wings. It was a controversial issue in 2024 when McLaren exploited the rulebook on their rear wing flexing for extra DRS performance. The FIA was going to open the floodgates on development of them, but instead of U-turned in classic FIA-style, and are now going to reduce the limit of variance on flexi-wings by 33% via a technical directive for the Spanish GP in June.
I think this is a “for the show” move by the governing body. You can develop these wings, but only for the first third of the season? This keeps teams’ beaks dry so they can keep pushing for performance now before the new regulations kick in in 2026. As a result, it keeps teams from going all-in on development for that season early.
The other one is Ben Sulayem’s continued crusade against bad language. From now on, if an F1 driver causes any kind of misconduct – Which swearing in a press conference is included, the driver will now be fined 40,000 euros for a first offence, doubled to 80k for a second, and then 120k and a one-month ban from the sport for a third across two years.
BS has gone even further, with reports behind the scenes alleging he’s pushing for a total ban on team radio during the race. It’s completely draconian in an attempt to make the sport PG. It will not work, it’s completely over the top and we’ve only had two instances of a driver swearing in a presser since Ben Sulayem got his boxers in a twist about it. I think ALL of this is overblown, but it only opens up the door for another petty fight between the governing body and the drivers association.
On top of that, Johnny Herbert has become the latest high-profile casualty from the FIA stewards pool. This one however, is justified. It took F1’s audience a little while to clock it, but the man was taking money from bookmakers to explain his decision-making as a steward. At best, it’s a conflict of interest. At worst, it’s illegal in some countries due to his status as a sports official. He had to go, and I’m glad he’s gone. Don’t cry for him, he now gets to cheer for Lola as an ambassador. Also, Ben Sulayem has claimed they’ll be multiple race directors again this year… because that worked out so well the last time.
🏆- One F1 Championship / 🔰- Rookie
Kick Sauber
#27 – Nico Hulkenberg (11th) / #5 – Gabriel Bortoleto 🔰(2024 F2 Champion)
2024 was another year of pain for a Sauber team that still can’t build a good car to save its life. It was a season that started in frustration with sloppy pit stops via wheel nut material changes, and any development on the car came far too late to get them off the bottom of the Constructors. Just one scoring drive out of 48 attempts in 2024.
Sauber’s been begging for change internally, and it looks like the wheels are finally in motion. Mattia Binotto gets his first full season as the team’s CEO, and he’s already pulled a big coup. He’s paid the extra cash to get Jonathan Wheatley bought out of his Red Bull gardening leave so he can become their new Team Principal early as Alessandro Alunni Bravi heads to McLaren to do some brand activations. He’s generally regarded as the best Sporting Director in F1 and was the real string-puller as Christian Horner’s right-hand man.
I also like that Sauber is finally investing in an engineering hub in the UK to assist their main factory in Hinwil, Switzerland. It’s always been a hard sell to convince potential engineers to move countries, so having a UK base is a big asset to their team. I pray it’s not another factory in the Motorsport belt and it’s nearer an actual big city so they have a better chance of hiring people that aren’t just white… but I digress.
Anyway, the driver pairing is an intriguing one. Nico Hulkenberg brings over 230 races of experience, and he’s come off two exceptional seasons for Haas. As he enters his Age 37 season, I think this is the German rolling the dice and seeing what he can do with being at the front of the queue for Audi tech.
Alongside him is Gabriel Bortoleto, who last year became just the fourth person to double up with F3 and F2 Championships as a rookie. When you’re coming up in the same company as George Russell, Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri, that’s a promising sign. But… F2 was a hot mess last season and it’s hard to get a true read on how good a prospect Bortoleto is.
The blessing for the Brazilian though, should be that expectations should be low. Sauber was plum last in 2024, and unless there’s a radical shift in Sauber’s chassis, I expect that to continue. I’d settle for “being a better last, ” as I projected a few years back for Williams. If they start 2025 like they finished 2024, maybe there’s some promise before Audi officially takes the reins next year.
Williams Racing
#23 – Alex Albon (12th) / #55 – Carlos Sainz (6th)
An early stumbling block for Williams in the James Vowles revolution. An overweight 2024 car hampered their season right from the start, and by the time they were fighting for points more frequently, Logan Sargeant was let go, and the field they were chasing was massively in the clear.
But it’s hard not to address the big signing. Williams won the Carlos Sainz sweepstakes, and it’s a game-changer that immediately changes the dynamic of the team. Alex Albon lapped up a lot of applause for his 2023 season and beyond since becoming team leader but looked a little shakier when Colapinto was performing at his best. Now he faces his toughest test since 2021 – A genuine top-tier level teammate who, at his best, can keep Charles Leclerc honest. We might be about to find out if the Thai driver’s been living a little bit on fool’s gold.
But Williams’ issues run deeper. Vowles admitted the team tried to do too much change too quickly in 2024, and they got their fingers burned via an overweight chassis and a car that seemed generally very difficult to drive, with all three drivers getting into big, damaging wrecks. For a team trying to rebuild, unnecessary financial setbacks do matter.
And that’s just it, Williams is changing their entire infrastructure and management to try and make them winners in the long term. This isn’t going to happen overnight, and it will take time. But at what point is it fair to expect progress? Year 1 was great, Year 2 was a step backwards. This is Year 3 of Vowles at the helm, and getting back to P7 should be the target. There’s even more expectation given you now have arguably the third-best driver pairing on the grid.
How far along the Vowles timeline do you have to go before improvement is an expectation?
VISA Cash-App Racing Bulls
#22 – Yuki Tsunoda (12th) / #6 – Isack Hadjar 🔰 (2nd in 2024 F2 Season)
I still can’t stand the name. Ah well.
Racing Bulls were the biggest losers of the midfield battle of 2024, with Alpine’s late surge and Haas’ consistency beating them over the season, with Racing Bulls’ mid-season upgrade package messing up their floor, and their pace. Chuck in yet another needless driver drama and Laurent Meikes’ first year as team principal was sub-par.
The aftermath of 2024 still lingers. Yuki Tsunoda was passed over for the Red Bull factory gig by Liam Lawson, but he remains a part of the umbrella. But it already feels like his days are numbered. This is the final year of Red Bull having any Honda affiliation whatsoever, as the latter moves to Aston Martin for 2026’s regulation shift. I openly admit that I got these ties to Honda wrong, there IS support coming from Japan that’s set to expire.
Alongside that, the smoke around yet another Red Bull junior is already in the air. Arvid Lindblad was the real reason that Red Bull pushed for Superlicense exemptions for 17-year-olds, not Kimi Antonelli. He’s just won the F4 Oceania title, meaning he’s now eligible for FP1 sessions with his current point tally. The Race reported that Lindblad’s getting the two-year-old F1 car testing treatment too, an expensive tool given the cost of running Honda power units, as well as a full FP1 testing slate. It all points towards Year 5 of Tsunoda at RB being his last before Lindblad gets the 2026 seat. It’d be a damn shame for Tsunoda, who’s done very little wrong in the car for the last two years, but this is the ruthlessness of the Red Bull programme.
Isack Hadjar is alongside him in the #6. Jokes aside about inevitable angry radio messages given the pairing, I’m rooting for him to do well. He won four feature races in F2’s chaos last year. And while Campos was one of the big winners of the new 2024 car debuting, I think he was the most impressive of the Four (that’s insane) F2 graduates. Being Mechachromed on the final race of a wafer-thin title fight was a gutwrencher too. I just fear that he’s going to be another two-and-done RB graduate as the conveyor belt shifts as usual in Milton Keynes.
The goal for RB will be the same as it is every year for RB, crack the Top 5. Just not sure about the balance of the team and where their points are going to come from this year if Tsunoda is expected to run another teammate over.
Haas F1 Team
#31 – Esteban Ocon (14th) / #87 – Ollie Bearman 🔰 (12th in 2024 F2 Season)
Haas were the feel-good story of 2024. Out were the bad vibes that came with Guenther Steiner the executive producer and part-time team boss, in came a humble, more engineering-focused team boss in Ayao Komatsu. And their instant turnaround was remarkable. It’s been said before that Komatsu showed a more pragmatic approach to the team and its car development. It went straight into Bahrain testing trying to understand the Pirelli tyres, their big weakness in 2023. It worked, and they immediately benefitted from the extra knowledge.
Add in a more spontaneous approach to upgrades rather than the Steiner strategy of waiting for a big total package to land at once that the team and drivers seemed to appreciate, and a brilliant season from Nico Hulkenberg and Haas had their best season in half a decade. There’s more scope for improvement on the way thanks to a technical partnership with Toyota, who will likely help with construction, engineering and other resources.
They’ve had to blow the team up, and that could be risky. Hulkenberg took one last gamble for podiums via Audi, and it was the right time for the team to move on from Kevin Magnussen’s stagnation. In comes Esteban Ocon, hungry and keen to prove himself after a calamitous falling out with Alpine. As I’ve said in Ask Dre, I think Ocon’s reputation as a “homewrecker” is undeserving, and I think he’s the most underrated driver on the grid as a result, throwing big punches against Prime Checo and Fernando Alonso in the not too distant past. This could be the spot for him to have the team built around him for the first time in his career.
Alongside him, Ollie Bearman. Don’t let the 12th in F2 last year fool you, Prema was way off the boil in the new car era, and his 2023 F2 season with four wins as a 17-year-old rookie was all I needed to see to justify his backing. And that’s before his excellent cameos in Saudi Arabia and Baku, the latter where he beat Hulkenberg across the weekend. Like Joe Hendry, I believe in the Bearman.
There’s a lot to like about this Haas team heading into 2025. Exciting drivers, great foundation to build upon, big new partner? Why not aim for the Top 5 again like Haas did at its very best?
Alpine
#10 – Pierre Gasly (10th) / #7 – Jack Doohan 🔰 (3rd in 2023 F2 Season) / Franco Colapinto (??)
Dear Alpine, for the love of God could you please have a moment of rest?
2024 was chaotic enough, with quitting technical staff, a complete relationship breakdown between their talismanic ace driver and the return of Flavio Briatore (I still can’t quite believe that), and a car that started 12-13 kilos overweight but recovered reasonably well to finish strong and steal sixth place overall. A fine season after a heap of nonsense.
I wish I could say things have calmed down, but they haven’t. Jack Doohan’s now taken Esteban Ocon’s spot, the former reserve driver beat out Mick Schumacher for the gig, but he’s under pressure before he’s even started, with Ryo Hirakawa, Paul Aron and the more eyebrow-raising Franco Colapinto signed as reserve driver, the latter of which on a five-year contract. Now, call me crazy, but why would you ever sign a reserve to that long a contract?
The reports have refused to go away that Doohan is under the gun for an immediate release if he doesn’t perform in the first half dozen races, with Colapinto lined up to replace him if the Aussie doesn’t perform. Doohan got snappy at the F175 live press conferences when the media inevitably pushed Jack for comment, and in fairness, I’m glad Alpine defended their man and shut down that line of questioning. But it’s hard to shake off the talk given this is exactly how Flavio Briatore manages his talent.
Alpine snatched sixth place in the standings right at the death last year, but they need a more stable base of performance to work with. We all have their classic strengths and weaknesses. A generally solid chassis but lacking in power, as much as 35 horsepower according to Otmar Szefnauer while he was in charge. And no matter how you slice it, going for Ocon to Doohan, a solid F2 driver but who never set the world alight feels like a downgrade.
But I do wonder, just how important is this year for Alpine as their final one as a factory team? There’ll be a brand new Mercedes power unit and gearbox in the car come 2026, so I wonder how much of this year Alpine will take at full force before thinking about that new car smell.
Aston Martin
#14 – Fernando Alonso 🏆🏆 (9th) / #18 – Lance Stroll (13th)
Stage 2 of the Cartmel Masterplan is now in progress. Aston Martin’s 2024 was a rough experience. A strong opening salvo with a car that was likely still in the Top 4 when the year started, but was down in seventh to eighth by years end, sometimes struggling to get out of Q1. Aston was one of the biggest victims of floor development, messing with the balance of their car, experimenting and then reverting to previous spec floors deep into the season. Trust me, it’s not a good sign if I’m hearing “Hungary spec” in November.
Dan Fallows, the man hailed for Aston’s incredible start to 2023, was stuffed into a Silverstone locker as they were parading Adrian Newey upstairs. And say what you will about Lawrence Stroll, he is prepared to cut cheques if he thinks it’ll help the team win. Newey’s deal alone is an eye-watering £30m a year, with an ownership stake and full control over the technical department chucked in. Fun Fact, he’s making so much money now, he could drop a pound from his waist, and he’s already made it back before it hits the floor.
He’s just one cog in a big technical reshuffle, with former Mercedes engine whisperer Andy Cowell replacing Martin Whitmarsh as Group CEO and Enrico Cardile joining from Ferrari as new Technical Officer… sort of, it’s still under legal red tape because Cardile alledgedly broke his gardening leave agreement. Whoops.
Again, this is one of the teams where I’ll be watching closely as to when they pull the trigger and go all in for 2026 because Aston has so many moving parts in their future with Honda joining as their new power-unit supplier, as well as the future of its leading man. Fernando Alonso is 44 in July, with two years left on his latest extension. All quotes from the man suggest he’s still hungry for that third title that desperately eludes him. But for the modern era, this is uncharted waters for someone of his age. How long can his body hold up? Will the motivation still be there? Is the first year of the new regulations the final chance he’s holding out for?
And if it is, does Aston go all-in for the Max Verstappen sweepstakes afterwards? I’d talk more about Lance Stroll here too, but it’s difficult to expect anything more than another year of frustration. This is Year 9 of Stroll in F1, and he’s still inconsistent, prone to errors, and immune from jeopardy. It’s harsh to talk about the Canadian driver in this way, but what other angle is there? This is who he is now, and barring a career-defining turnaround, he’s playing second fiddle to Fernando.
This still feels like Aston Martin 2: The Open Beta test. The real value of the reshuffle, Honda, and their collective new resources (Don’t forget the new wind tunnel and lead building), will likely be felt in 2026 and beyond. But we gotta get through the here and now first, and this team isn’t content with another year of being a distant fifth.
Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team
#63 – George Russell (6th) / #12 – Andrea Kimi Antonelli 🔰 (6th in 2024 F2 Season)
Welcome to what feels like a new era for Mercedes. It’s the first time in 12 years that the #44 will not be on the front of the Silver and Black.
2024 was a year of disruption. A poor start, sinking as low as fifth in the standings and fighting with Aston Martin again, but they also somehow got four wins out of a W15 that at times, felt like it had become sentient. Their pace often swung on climate, where they’d struggle to manage their tyre temperature in hotter weather, but were often incredibly fast on colder, slippier tracks like Vegas where they dominated, and Silverstone where Hamilton briefly rediscovered “God Mode”. But LH got fed up with the wheels spinning and as he turned 40 last month, he wanted one last roll of the dice with his dream team. More on them in a bit.
It’s hard to get a read on Mercedes right now. This is a team we evaluate in the context of winning major titles. How could we not after eight straight years of dominance? It’s like playing Balatro, they have to figure out where their scoring is coming from if they’re going to succeed in the long term. Haas immediately improved the moment they developed their understanding of the tyres and not have them cooked the the moment they were attached to the car.
The drivers carry their element of risk. I’m not so worried about George Russell. He’s had three very good years in Mercedes and dealing with having arguably the greatest ever across the garage. Beat LH pretty comprehensively in 2024 and to me, he’s ready to take that step up and lead this team. But does anyone know for sure just how good Kimi Antonelli is?
He’s still just 18 years of age and has a glistening reputation off the back of his karting, F4 and FRECA dominance. He represents the changing of the guard as to how junior talent is evaluated. F2 has become the internet’s punching bag after engine inconsistencies and a new car leading to 18 different winners. Kimi’s F2 season last year was patchy but at times brilliant after two stellar drives in the wet at Silverstone, and his feature race win in Hungary. If you ask those close to the karting crowd, he showed Verstappen levels of promise. And you could tell after his mildly embarrassing wreck at Monza in FP1, that people are gunning for him. Deep protection from inside Mercedes, and by some of colleagues in the press. Never has “overheating the tyres and smashing into a barrier on your second timed lap” faced levels of spin that Alistair Campbell would have been proud of.
It’s what makes it so difficult to evaluate Kimi as a driver right now, and what we should expect from him in 2025. If he’s the Verstappen-level prospect some think he is, he should be in the Top 8, with around 200 points, and within a handful of tenths of Russell right? And a lot of this will also boil down as to where Mercedes is at as a team too. They’re certainly going to want to stop their three-year slide in the constructors. There’s no getting around it, it’s a tad embarrassing you had George Russell and Lewis Hamilton and you finished up 200 points behind their customer McLaren on the same power unit.
At the end of the day, not even Mercedes knows how good they are. And if they don’t, why the heck are you asking me? A Top 3 Constructors finish and four to six wins and I don’t think they’re too disappointed for now, but they have big questions entering the next era of F1 that I think they need answers to.
Oracle Red Bull Racing
#1 – Max Verstappen 🏆🏆🏆🏆 (2024 World Champion) / #30 – Liam Lawson 🔰? (21st)
Welcome to the hot mess that is Red Bull, in the first year of life after Adrian Newey. Don’t get me wrong, Red Bull has a superb infrastructure and Pierre Wache has done a very good job running the day-to-day operations of the team, but this is the first real test for him as he leads a new, changed outfit post-infrastructure change.
You have to ask the question, what is this team going to be without many of the key pieces that made them what they are? Adrian Newey is gone, Jonathan Wheatley is now working directly against them at Sauber earlier than anticipated after negotiating a buyout, and Will Courtenay (Head of Race Strategy) will likely be frozen out as he heads to McLaren in 2026 as their new Sporting Director.
These were huge, long-standing members of the team who were the backbone of Red Bull as an organisation. I’ve always praised the Bulls for having a superb organisation and a strong culture of “next person up”, but how many big cogs have to go before the engine stops working?
There was no getting around it, Red Bull had their wings clipped in 2024. After McLaren nailed the flexi-wings and finally got their shit together via upgrades, they were more than a match for the Bulls and took advantage of Sergio Perez’s quads resembling Vince McMahon’s (Cheers, Cam) to win the Constructors.
Red Bull still won the Drivers title because Max Verstappen drove out of his goddamn mind to squeeze every last drop out of an RB20 that was notoriously difficult to get in their optimal performance window – Partially because Max was so good as far back as 2023 that Perez’s warnings were openly ignored. (When Max was THAT good, can you blame them?)
With Checo finally put out of his misery, Red Bull went for the spicy replacement option in Liam Lawson. It makes sense, you could make a case he has a higher long-term ceiling than Yuki Tsunoda (Especially with the concerns about his early start to his career), and the fact that Lawson has been a dab hand in everything he’s driven as a pro, from Super Formula to DTM.
As much as I disagreed at the time (And still do), I get it. But if Red Bull wants any chance of the Constructors, 250 points and semi-regular podiums are probably what needs to happen, and well… no one’s gotten close to Max’s level since Daniel Ricciardo in 2018. History and the odds are against you.
Oh, and one more thing – No factory team has bitched more about the upcoming 2026 regulation change than them, citing big concerns over de-rating as the 2026 power units are running near 50% electric power between it and the ICE. Another bit of speculation here, but that doesn’t seem like a confident team now they’re essentially making their own PUs rather than leaning on Honda’s brilliant designs of yesteryear.
Their test in Bahrain was a little ropey, with a fair share of spins. They seemed happy enough with their pace, but Wache openly admitted that they’ve gone with a safer setup so that hopefully Verstappen and Lawson can extract more out of their package. My gut tells me that Red Bull will be in a dogfight with McLaren right from the start of the year rather than Round 7, and if that holds up, they’re in trouble unless Lawson is the second coming of Ricciardo. And I don’t think he’s that yet.
Let the real test for Red Bull, begin.
Scuderia Ferrari
#16 – Charles Leclerc (3rd) / #44 – Lewis Hamilton 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 (7th)
Welcome to where excitement’s from. Scuderia Ferrari hasn’t been the story of the off-season, it’s been the entire sport for the last 14 months. This is Lewis Hamilton’s land now, and if you don’t like that, tough. John Cena has turned babyface again.
Ferrari was agonizingly close to their first world championship in 16 years in 2024, finishing just 14 points behind McLaren in the Constructors, a swing so tight that if Sainz’s final pitstop in Abu Dhabi went the other way and he beats Norris, Ferrari takes it on countback. Essentially, if Ferrari didn’t botch their summer upgrade package and derail their development for two months, they win the Constructors at a canter. That hurt.
Going back to January 2024 – Ferrari’s attitude was simple: If they can sign Lewis Hamilton, you sign Lewis Hamilton. With rumours of a salary north of $55m, financial support towards Mission 44 and other elements of the Hamilton brand, a return for Angela Cullen and the band’s back together. The social media, the buzz, and the vibes have been immaculate for his inception, and while Carlos Sainz is a superb driver in his own right, he will never have the… ahem, *Aura* that LH is bringing, and that galvanising effect of signing the guy.
Will it be enough? Hard to say. One side of the garage I have no problem with – Charles Leclerc. I’m so glad my colleagues at Autosport agreed with me that he was the #2 driver in the world last year, with excellent consistency, brilliant racecraft and at times, unstoppable raw pace. He has handled Carlos Sainz, an excellent driver in his own right, to retain his #1 status. I know Charles is good for 300+ points, and at least 2-4 wins if Ferrari is anywhere near the front.
But then there’s Lewis Hamilton. And as I’ve consistently said since the back half of 2024, I’m not fully convinced there’s going to be an immediate bump in quality. In F1, you’re only as good as your last season, and 2024 was arguably LH’s worst in an F1 car relative to his teammate and the field. He’d never finished a season in 7th, he was soundly beaten in Quali and Race Head-To-Heads by George Russell and his performances were all over the place. How much of that was Mercedes’ unpredictable state as a team in general or 2024, Hamilton being inevitably frozen out of procedures as he became a rival at the end of the season, or just Lewis out of form?
At what point is it a fair question to ask, just what is 40-year-old Hamilton entering the final chapter of his F1 career? He’s earned the right to have the benefit of the doubt given his legendary career, but in the here and now, I think his 2024 was a genuine question mark as to just how good he is. It’s what makes the Leclerc matchup genuinely fascinating. The Monaco super-prospect and former Championship runner-up entering his prime, vs the People’s Champion and likely GOAT, who might just be moving out of his prime. I think they can co-exist politically, but is it enough of a driver upgrade to take Ferrari over the top?
And the other little thing – their testing didn’t go particularly well, Ferrari did little to excite the media or raise an eyebrow, and Hamilton admitted he’s nowhere near where he wants to be with the car. Their car is 90% new parts too, and every time you hear that phrase in F1, eyeballs start rolling.
Ferrari is about to be F1 2025’s main character, and I’m not sure they or we are ready for that.
McLaren Racing
#4 – Lando Norris (2nd) / #81 – Oscar Piastri (5th)
And finally, the Papaya itself and the reigning Constructors Champions, McLaren, their first in 26 years. And good news Woking Warriors – I think you guys are rightful favourites to retain.
McLaren were the bells of the ball in winter testing, laying down some excellent long runs and shrugging off the concerns on flexi-wings. The gut feeling? They have two-tenths on the field and it’s a dogfight between the rest of the paddock.
Lando Norris will likely lead the charge, feeling like a blur in time as he enters his seventh season in F1. Last year was his first with a genuine title contender for a car, and while I do genuinely think the title was possible with excellent execution, something McLaren lacked, I’m a lot more confident in saying that Norris won’t make those same mistakes again if given a second chance. His racecraft against Verstappen was excellent, firm, fair and never over the line (And he shouldn’t have been punished in Austin in this writer’s opinion, alas.)
The poor starts were largely taken care of by year’s end too. Beyond that, he had 2024’s best average qualifying position, eight pole positions and four wins. If McLaren opens the season in the same spot they closed out in 2024, I’d expect Lando to at least double that tally…
But there’s the Australian elephant in the room. What do we get from Oscar Piastri’s difficult third album? The basic numbers weren’t promising, losing out to Lando by nearly three wins worth of points and a horrible Qualifying head-to-head. But dig a little deeper and that same H2H only had Piastri down by an average of about a tenth and a half.
For a Year 2 driver competing against someone in his sixth (And a career year by the way, one that proved he is world-class), then that’s interesting, and assuming Piastri continues to improve as a driver that still has less than 50 starts, what could Piastri do? At his best, he can, has and will beat Lando at his own game. He handled races like Baku and Monza with real steel and confidence, way beyond his experience. And if that happens – Can McLaren keep them both on the same page?
McLaren’s weakness last year was that lack of operational execution. A car that on multiple occasions, struggled to get off the line. There were some questionable strategic calls, sometimes leaning too much into letting Lando make the call himself. And it’s hard not to mention Hungary and the begging of Lando to concede a victory just to placate Piastri’s feelings, and the unnecessary “Papaya Rules” to try and control two drivers who didn’t need controlling to that point.
McLaren’s worst enemies in 2024, were themselves. They still won a major title but coughed up a genuine chance at the other. While I don’t think they’ll make those mistakes again, it is an issue that will hang over their heads going into what could be another colossal barfight.
Predictions
Driver’s Champion: Lando Norris – By all accounts, it looks like McLaren have at least two tenths on the field after pre-season testing. If McLaren’s broken their duck of starting slow, everyone’s in trouble. We saw what Verstappen could do off the back of his ridiculously strong start. Give Norris the same privlege and I’m going to find him very hard to beat. Especially because I just don’t think Norris will amke those same mistakes twice.
Constructors Champions: McLaren – I think right now, I like McLaren as a team and think they’re a little more well-rounded. Lando Norris likely won’t make the same set of errors twice, Piastri is only going to get better with more experience, and I’m still not sure how long it’ll take for Lewis Hamilton to bring his A-Game to a new team for the first time in 12 years.
Best of the Rest? (5th in WCC): Aston Martin – They’ve been in development hell for the last year and change, but I do think Newey’s initial work and the fact they tend to start seasons strong will be enough to hold onto 5th. But I don’t think Alpine will be too far behind…
Over/Under 6.5 Different Winners: Under – Mercedes was very fortunate to win four races last season, I don’t think that’s happening again. Of the Elite 8 in seats, I don’t think Lawson or Antonelli win a GP. That puts me at 6, so under for me.
Will there be a Mid-Season driver swap? Yes – Jack Doohan feels like a dead man walking, and that sucks to even have to say, but everything about Alpine has this screaming that Franco Colapinto is the guy they tell you to worry about.
See you in Australia on March 16th.
