F1s just started their break, MotoGPs are done with theirs, and IndyCars are on a forced hiatus to accommodate NBC broadcasting the Olympic Games and will return on August 17th. With that in mind, I wanted to tackle some mid-late game preview/review content, because I’m chronically indecisive.
Now I originally had this drafted and ready to do, but I’d be ignorant if I didn’t talk about the news that dropped on August 7th that Juncos Hollinger Racing and Agustin Canapino have parted ways.
This just makes me feel sad. Agustin Canapino alongside Ricardo Juncos was meant to be a beautiful, feel-good story. An Argentine immigrant risking it all to build a racing team in the United States, working their way up from Karting all the way up to IndyCar, and including multiple Top 5 finishes and bumping McLaren out of the Indy 500 via Kyle Kaiser’s magical final run. This was meant to be the little team that could. But man has it gotten ugly, and there’s a reasonable case to make that Canapino has centred around a lot of the toxicity.
Callum Illot was driven out of that team partly via the death threats he suffered as a result of Canapino’s shortcomings at Laguna Seca in 2023. And then when Theo Pourchaire hit him in Detroit earlier this season, those threats returned. Canapino ended up terminally online, becoming the story as he denied the existence of Pourchaire’s abuse, telling him to essentially “man up”, and said: “Well I’ve got it too”. It led to a genuine mental breakdown at Road America and Nolan Siegel taking his place for a race.
Since then, his results have dropped off a cliff. In the five races since his benching, he’s finished 18th, 22nd, 25th, 27th and 26th, including an embarrassing crash in Iowa coming out of pit road and an over-ambitious pass attempt in Toronto that put him in the wall when racing Scott Dixon. There was genuine promise in Canapino’s results last year. Now he’s the worst of the full-time starters.
I suspect Mr Hollinger’s had to step in. The financial incentives to hire him are now gone due to President Milei slashing Motorsport’s funding in his Argentine homeland. And looking at the standings, the #78 Juncos is in danger of falling out of the Leader’s Circle (five points behind final spot holder Sting Ray Robb), something Canapino fought desperately hard to get for both cars last year. Despite the #4 and #11 Chip Ganassi Cars being exempt (Only three cars per team count), the #41 Foyt of Sting Ray Robb is five points above the 22nd and final spot in the owner’s standings.
Given the prize money for that spot is set to go up in the wake of the hybrid introduction (Rumoured to be north of $1m), I suspect Juncos have done what Meyer Shank did in dropping Tom Blomqvist after the Indy 500, make the big move to try and protect that Leader’s Circle spot. And with 4 ovals to close out the season, and Conor Daly as the best oval specialist on the board, it’s screaming temporary hire.
Canapino earned a lot of goodwill and respect for coming over from Stock Car Racing, learning the language extremely quickly and treating IndyCar with the respect the series so often craves. But his apparent struggle to lay off his phone and accept criticism from the Internet has ultimately ended his American dream. It shouldn’t have been so unsettling. But it ended up that way.
IndyCar has five races left between now and its season finale in September, and as usual, there is a favourite for the title, but it isn’t a done deal yet. Remember, there’s a good reason that we’ve only had one early Champion crowned since the unification of CART in 2007. And looking at those final five races, I’m spotting a theme:
Race 13: Gateway (Oval) – August 17th
Race 14: Grand Prix of Portland (Road) – August 25th
Race 15: Milwaukee Mile (Race 1, Oval) – August 31st
Race 16: Milwaukee Mile (Race 2, Oval) – September 1st
Race 17: Nashville Superspeedway (Oval) – September 15th
If you haven’t guessed by now, yes, four of the final five races are on ovals. While Nashville was an unhappy accident due to the incompetence of Taylor Swift’s ex-manager (Not for the first time either), I think this was partly by design. Ovals are unpredictable, they tend to have multiple car wrecks, and they’re a completely separate entity from the norm. And if I was IndyCar and running a series that by design is closer than ever (Spec chassis, recent removal of double points rounds), throwing four oval races in the final six rounds would be a clever way of ensuring a close finish.
So, let’s break down all the key title contenders, and some key stats and weigh up some pros and cons as IndyCar enters… the run-in. But first, the fringe contenders who probably won’t win it now. And PS: If you’re gambling with the odds in the post, PLEASE, gamble responsibly.
Santino Ferrucci – Look, if there’s been a winner of the AJ Foyt/Penske alliance, it’s Santino, who has genuinely been very consistent this season. 12 races in, seven Top 10 finishes. Nowhere near a Championship but deserves genuine praise for cracking the Top 10 overall. Maybe he’s finally fulfilling that potential the commentary box has laid out for him…
Alexander Rossi – Probably should have won at Laguna Seca until Luca Ghiotto’s caution forced the entire field to rethink strategy and open the door for Alex Palou’s comeback. At that point, he was only 10 points behind Pato O’Ward. But the wreck in Race 2 of Iowa and then breaking his thumb in a practice crash in Toronto has now likely put him out of the running. Where the heck is he going to end up in 2025?
Josef Newgarden – Did the American do a deal with the devil to sacrifice his talent for two Indy 500s?! His average finish on the season? 13! Newgarden is on for his worst IndyCar season for a championship-finishing position since 2014!
Alex Palou
Points: 411 (Leader)
Key Stats: 2 Wins, 2 Pole Positions, 10 Top 5 Finishes
Key Strength: He’s the best IndyCar Driver in the World
Key Weakness: The Unknown
Championship Odds: 1/2
Alex Palou is the best IndyCar driver in the world and has been for at least the last two years now. And his 2024 season has been more of the same. He’s traded in some of the outright raw speed, having only won twice (He had four by now last season), but instead has raised his floor even higher. Remember, we’ve only had 12 races this season and yet Palou has finished in the Top 5 in TEN of them. The only two he didn’t win were his spin into the wall in Iowa Race 1 (His first series DNF in two seasons), and Detroit where he was taken out by Josef Newgarden.
Palou is entering the break, up by 49 points. It’s not quite “Palover” yet like last year when he had the series in a vice grip by now, but he does have a weekend in hand, and the chasing pack is running out of time. The other contenders are likely going to have to land two big counterpunches to get close by the season’s end. And Palou’s got one more ace in the hole – Portland. He’s won two out of his three attempts there. If he wins that, forget it.
The big concern for me with Palou is that his oval form will leave the door open just a crack. He’s had good days but never cracked the Top 6 at Gateway, and he’s never raced at Milwaukee or Nashville’s Superspeedway. But as my co-host RJ O’Connell has often said: “Oh no, his Oval Ratings only a 92 and not a 98.”
The Bookies have Palou in the 75-80% range. I’m inclined to agree, it’s going to take a collapse for Palou to lose the title from here. But we’ve seen stranger things happen in IndyCar.
Will Power (2nd)
Points: 362 (-49 off lead)
Key Stats: 2 wins, Three Second Places
Key Strengths: Zenmaster Drives Are Still In Him
Key Weakness: Erratic Run Of Form
Championship Odds: 11/2
William Steven Power. What a wild ride this man has been on. From the Zenmaster Title of 2022 where he only won once but pointed the field to death, to 2023 where his wife’s Staph Infection completely took him out of concentrating on racing. The funny thing about Power’s 2024 is that we’ve seen elements of both versions of him come up this season.
He started super hot with second-place finishes in three out of the first four races, with a hat-trick of runner-up spots in Qualifying. But then a poor Indy 500 despite qualifying on the front row has led to an erratic run of form. He won his first race in two years when he outsmarted his Penske teammates at Road America. It showed he could triumph over some of his mental demons. He won again at Iowa Race 2 (His first Oval win in SIX years), but let’s be honest, it was as “jammy” a win as you get in IndyCar without calling in the WWE’s scriptwriters. Surrounded by that win on the Wikipedia table is three finishes outside of the Top 10, including two self-inflicted errors at Iowa 1 and a reckless take out of his teammate Scott McLaughlin in Toronto.
This is why I find it hard to find confidence in Power because you just don’t know what version of him will show up. Whether it’s the quiet, hyper-focused, elite driver who can win anywhere. Or the man who’s sometimes in his head and will make silly mistakes. I think Power’s the contender that’s hanging on by a thread the most and I could see him dropping him off by season’s end. But if he can steal one more win…
Scott Dixon (3rd)
Points: 358 (-53)
Key Stats: Two Wins, 7 Top 5 finishes
Key Strengths: He’s Scott Dixon
Key Weaknesses: Qualifying
Championship Odds: 5/1
There’s a reason why despite very similar point totals, Scott Dixon’s odds are generally a little shorter than Will Power’s. Because you never have to be worried about Dixon’s form. He turned 44 in July and he’s one of the three best drivers out here, and he’s got another shot at tying the great AJ Foyt for his seventh Astor Cup.
Dixon has done what Dixon usually does in his IndyCar campaigns. Win a race or two, but keep that floor so high that he kills his title rivals via death by 1,000 cuts. His incredible fuel save win at Long Beach marked his 20th consecutive season with a win and his 22nd overall. He took advantage of the chaos of Detroit to win from the front in the back half.
But Dixon’s not been his usual near-perfect self. He was completely anonymous in Barber. His Road America was a disaster as a bad seat of alternates derailed his race. And the racing gods took a pound of flesh at Mid-Ohio when he became the hybrid unit’s first high-profile failure. He’s gone 4-4-3 since that day, but when you’re 53 points behind Alex Palou, who models himself as a better version of you, that’s not going to cut it anymore.
Dixon at this point is likely going to have to replicate his incredible 2023 finish to the year (When he won three out of the last four), to win it now. His qualifying is still an issue too. His average starting spot of 10th is the joint worst of the seven names on my list, and he’s giving himself more work to do. He’s still Dixon, so it’s more than possible. But this might be another year where the mountain’s just too big to climb.
Colton Herta (4th)
Points: 354 (-57)
Key Stats: 9 Top 10’s, Win at Toronto, 3 Pole Positions
Key Strengths: Raw Speed, Improved Consistency
Key Weaknesses: Might Be Too Late For 2024 Campaign
Championship Odds: 8/1
Ah, now THIS is the Colton Herta I remember that was talked about in F1 circles. It’s great to see him back, I was getting fed up of wondering where all that electric pace as a teenager had gone.
Colton is back to something near his best. Toronto was the showcase of the maturity he’s gained in his years away from the front end of the field. The raw speed he’s always had, twinned with measured control of the restarts and composure given Kyle Kirkwood was on him like a rash for the entire race. And beneath that headline-grabbing win (His first in 41 races and over two years), has been a solid floor of consistency. Not quite the “Fifth place is lava” that Dixon and Palou have had, but he’s kept himself in the mix for most of 2024. Even the oval form has looked better with two solid days in Iowa.
But this all feels like it’s come around a little too late. He’s also had to carry the “whammies” of an Indy 500 he crashed out in from second place and he completely lost his composure in Detroit when he ran Tristan Vautier and himself off the road. That rough week will be circled in the Wikipedia table if Herta comes up short of the big prizes.
I’m not as harsh on Herta as I am with others on this list because Andretti’s come from a bad place in recent years and they’ve improved as an overall unit this season, and Herta’s numbers are really good. They’re just a little short of the very, very best. But he’s close.
Pato O’Ward (5th)
Points: 340 (-71)
Key Stats: 2 Wins, 2 Second Places, Streak of 7 straight Top 10’s
Key Strengths: Still Tremendous Upside, Ovals to Finish Year
Key Weaknesses: Lack of Composure
Championship Odds: 12/1
Pato, Pato, Pato. What are we going to do with you? Every time we think this is going to be the breakout year again, his form reigns him back in.
St Pete’s win felt inherited because Josef Newgarden cheated even if a few button presses with a broken car likely didn’t equate to a nine-second win. His win at Mid-Ohio was a wonderful example of the Mexican at his very best. He beat Alex Palou in a 1-on-1, tyre management race and clawed back a six-second deficit to do it. A drive-of-the-year candidate, and a small maker-upper for the gutwrencher of another Indy 500 runner-up finish.
But once again with Pato, there’s been too many races where he’s been either completely anonymous or making headlines for the wrong reasons. He essentially took April off with how mediocre he was there, and of course, the Toronto spin while under pressure from Palou was a classic example of Pato losing his composure at the worst possible time. It’s a habit he still hasn’t fully shaken.
You know what will happen. He will end up with around 480 points again and probably end up 4th in the standings. Do you know why I’m so sure of it? Because he’s done it three times already:
2021 Season: 3rd (487 Points)
2022 Season: 7th (480 Points)
2023 Season: 4th (484 Points)
I said in my end-of-2023 season review that Pato needed to push to convert a 500-point season into a campaign-winning 600-point one. I fear he’s going to flatline around that number he’s always hit. And for a man coming close to five and a half years in the sport, and 85 starts projected as a future Champion, at what point do we call this disappointing?
Scott McLaughlin (6th)
Points: 328 (-83)
Key Stats: Two Wins, Indy 500 Pole, 5 Podiums, 4 Finishes of 20th or Lower
Key Strengths: Genuine Three-Tool Ability, Best Qualifier in the Series in 2024
Key Weakness: Crippling Errors
Championship Odds: 16/1
What a wild year it’s been for Scott McLaughlin. A part of me is seeing the year-to-year improvements he’s making and thinking “Yes, yes, yes, this is it, THIS is the true title campaign!”, and then something happens that derails him again.
Fun Fact: On average, he’s the best qualifier in IndyCar this year. He AVERAGES a Fast 6 birth, the only man in the field with an average start of below 6:
Scott McLaughlin: 5.6
Colton Herta: 6.4
Alex Palou: 6.5
Will Power: 7.9
Pato O’Ward: 7.9
It’s roughly the same number he was pulling in the back half of 2023. An Indy 500 pole with the fastest qualifying run in the history of the Speedway, and excellent on restarts in the race itself but not enough outright speed to win it overall. But he got his first Oval win in Iowa and was unlucky not to double up. Another excellent and dominant Barber win too. At his best, McLaughlin’s stuff is Championship level.
But he’s also been on the other side of that coin. Like Josef, disqualified in St Pete for illegal Push to Pass usage and without the trial by public opinion that his former bestie had. Technical failure at Long Beach, a smash of his own making in Detroit, a reckless divebomb on Will Power at Laguna Seca, with the Aussie returning the favour in Toronto a few rounds later. It’s not all been on him, but the combined mess of him, his teammates and his team as a whole has cost him a prime run at Palou’s Championship. And the way McLaughlin talks about Alex, he KNOWS it’s hurt him badly.
McLaughlin now has all the tools he needs to win it all. He can qualify as well as anyone. He’s grown consistent in his results. He can do it on road, street and oval tracks. He just needs to bring it all together and he’s a Champion in waiting. I have a bad feeling though that it won’t be this year.
Kyle Kirkwood (7th)
Points: 314 (-97)
Key Stats: 10 Top 10 Finishes
Key Strengths: Incredible Consistency
Key Weakness: The Ceiling Still Isn’t There Yet
Championship Odds: 66/1
Kyle Kirkwood is incredibly slept on. Do you know how badly he’s been slept on? Josef Newgarden, 145 points off the top spot and 48 behind Kirkwood has far shorter odds for the title. 28/1 for the Danish American. Kirkwood goes so under the radar he might as well be racing a submarine.
But Kirkwood has seriously impressed me this year. Toronto was his first podium of 2024 and man has he deserved it. He’s treated the Top 10 like the floor all season long. Only twice has he finished outside of it, the 11th in Indy’s Road Course race and the 16th when he span out avoiding Sting Ray Robb treating Alex Rossi’s fuelless car like a Pole Vault in Iowa.
Generally, you CAN point your way to an IndyCar title. But you need a little more upside because the scoring system ultimately favours winning and Top 5 finishes a lot more than sixths and sevenths. On average finish, Kirkwood is THIRD in the whole series, averaging 7.7. The same as Will Power, and only Herta and Palou are higher. But only one podium finish and three other Top 5’s just isn’t going to win you a title. For me, you need at least two or three wins and Kirkwood isn’t quite there yet. He needs better qualifying form as well, an Average Start of 10 isn’t great.
He’s built a strong foundation for a house, with a lot of the key features. The man just needs to decorate the inside and he’ll be right there.
Ultimately, I still think Palou will win the title, and as said in his section, one more win likely seals the deal for him. But the door is open just enough that if someone goes on a late charge, he could be vulnerable. Who do YOU think wins the Championship? Let me know on social media and until next time, thanks for reading.
