Rest peacefully, Diogo Jota, Andre Silva and Borja Gomez. You’ll never walk alone.
Welcome back to Ask Dre, the time of the month where I crack open my Mailbag and answer the best of your questions. In this edition, more on Jorge Martin’s contract drama, George Russell’s contract drama with Mercedes and the Verstappen talk that comes with it, whether Valtteri Bottas ends up at Alpine or Cadillac, and who takes Wimbledon. Enjoy!
Given the recent Valtteri Bottas links, do you think there’s a chance Alpine actually drop Franco Colapinto for him this season or do they just wait for ’26? – Scott Young
Hi Scott! I’d genuinely be surprised if Alpine drops Colapinto now. Given the ties his backers have made with Alpine itself, I suspect the plan from the start of the year was find a way to get Colapinto in the car from the very start, because if you’re going to roll the dice on a raw, experimental talent, go for the one with the higher looking ceiling and is well backed.
Bringing Valtteri Bottas does have a degree of sense. He’s kept himself fit and in the paddock, he was on the grid last season and was generally given a pass in terms of ability because Kick Sauber were awful last year. If you need a safe pair of hands, with valuable experience and someone more likely to give you a good baseline as to where your car is at, Val’s your guy.
But given Alpine’s last in the Constructor’s Championship right now, they haven’t really got a big reason to make another driver switch. You might as well give Colapinto the best part of a full season and truly evaluate where he’s at as a driver. I was never fully convinced on Colapinto given the nine-race sample size. Add another 18 to get him to 27 starts, just over a full season, and then you can make a better informed decision. Problem is, Val might be off the market, because…
So who is really getting those Cadillac seats? – Debbie
And for all the reasons listed above, it’s why I think Val would be the #1 pick of those drivers realistically on the market. Sergio Perez could easily be a contender too for similar reasons. If nothing else, Red Bull in 2025 has given Checo a little vindication that he wasn’t the only victim of his ex-employers making fast, but undriveable cars. Checo made his name as a midfield stalwart getting great results out of Team Silverstone and Sauber in years past. At that level, as a team guy who often made something out of nothing, and in an environment where there’s very little pressure to be a success right away, why not take the safe option?
I’ve heard Jak Crawford’s name mentioned, as the next American in line, and while he’s in contention to get his Superlicense at the end of the season, F2’s not in a great place at the moment. I mean, Year 5 veteran Richard Verschoor’s got a 24-point lead at the time of writing, and despite his messy racecraft tendencies, Alex Dunne might be the best prospect on the board. Crawford being a Year 3 runner in the series generally doesn’t translate well, but maybe his simulator runs for Aston Martin would be more compelling evidence.
I’d like to see IndyCar’s Cadillac affiliated Kyle Kirkwood and Colton Herta in the mix, but they need BIG seasons in the series to be eligible – Herta needs Top 4, and Kirkwood needs to win the Championship. And even then, they’re rookies entering their Age 27 season. Not ideal.
Just go Bottas and Perez. It ain’t sexy, but it doesn’t need to be. Get a base going, then you can think about making riskier hiring decisions.
Couple of Jorge Martin related questions next: With Dorna threatening to deny Jorge Martin’s registration for the 26 season if his contract wrangling is not resolved, how fast do you foresee HRC heading in the opposite direction? – Yewhoho
Do you think the fact that Aprilia seems to be performing at the moment makes it more or less likely for Jorge Martin to take the Honda seat (aka did Luca Marini’s crash truly cook his goose?) – Ciara
It is indirectly very funny that if nothing else, Marco Bezzecchi actually putting together a decent 2025 campaign (Currently sixth in points with a win and second place), while also being a rookie within the team is only making Jorge Martin’s feet digging to quit the team that much more questionable, because you’d likely think given Martin’s been better than Bez across their careers, Martin would be even better with more seat time.
But I think mentally, Martin’s had it in his head he wants out for some time, maybe as far back as the pre-season testing crashes. If a bike has caused you huge physical pain and two big injuries, when you have to trust a 225mph machine with 300+ horsepower, that’s a hard mental barrier to overcome. Even if by all accounts, Aprilia has been better than Honda for most of 2025 – Don’t let Johann Zarco’s heroics fool you.
Assen seemed like more intentional tactics from Martin’s camp to ramp up the pressure on Aprilia to blink, with both camps digging in for a months-long siege. Martin still claims he has a clause to leave, Aprilia’s prepared to go to court to prove otherwise. The factories priorities still have them wanting to keep Martin if possible, or else its compensation to break off the deal (Which according to my Tank Slappers co-host Uri Puigdemont, they’re far apart on), or a courtroom to settle the dispute. Neither party wants that – Aprilia doesn’t want to shell out any extra cash, and Martin would have to honour his contract in a time-consuming trial, likely in Milan, which might go against him.
Honda? They have to stand back and watch for the time being. They can’t be seen to be tapping up another rider while he’s still under contract, and no one wants to stick their nose into a potential legal case. Again, the problem is, the longer this goes on, the more likely they’ll have to look elsewhere, as Honda themselves have their own ducks to lineup – Johann Zarco’s a free agent but will likely stay if he gets factory gear, and the likely replacement needed for Somkiat Chantra.
Honda originally signed Luca Marini originally just days before the 2024 pre-season test in Valencia, but it’d be nice for them to know exactly what the market looks like before making any tough decisions. The earlier the better. But Jorge Martin’s so good and so much better than the other options on the market that they somewhat HAVE to wait, just to see if they win the lottery.
Someone in the Aprilia needs to back down soon. I think Aprilia will eventually negotiate a buyout. But it’s an ugly look for everyone involved that signing the World Champion could end up so ugly.
Between Miller and Oliveira, which one of these two is staying next year to partner Toprak at Pramac? – Viandra
Right now, the answer could be neither. Here comes a new challenger! – Diego Moreira, Assen’s Moto2 race winner, is now the odds-on favourite, according to my Tank Slappers colleague Mr Uri Puigdemont.
Turns out Diego signed a deal with Yamaha Brazil last month, and he’s done a private Balaton Park test on a Yamaha R1. There’s clearly commercial value in having a Brazilian rider in your back pocket, the first since Alex Barros. Yamaha wants to expand into South America, Diego’s a young and fashionable face for the brand and they have a natural landing spot at Pramac to incorporate him if his current Moto2 form continues (Third in points, 31 points behind Manu Gonzalez).
Not to mention – Brazil has a Grand Prix pencilled in for 2026 and having a home hero would be huge to parade in the country. Again, it’s never sat right with me that a rider’s passport is an influencing factor in his future employment, but that’s the sport we’re dealing with.
It also gives Pramac the feeling of a true “junior team”, even if Toprak’s entering his Age 30 season next year. It would mean both Jack Miller and Miguel Oliveira would be free agents, the latter likely the victim of a team-friendly buyout clause based on performance. It’s harsh given Miggy’s missed four races in 2025 through injury, but the best ability you can have as a rider is your availability.
If Toto can lure Max away from Red Bull, what could be Kimi or George’s options, as you could make an argument to swap out either of them (do you want two proven rapid drivers or do you want to avoid Lewis vs Nico 2.0)? – GalarianMike
Let’s say Max does move to Mercedes and George gets replaced next year. Where could Russell go then? Would he take one of the currently vacant seats, or could another fully occupied team make way for him, sacrificing another driver? – Emma
Similar questions again here in regards to Mercedes and the strong talk this week that Max Verstappen’s in genuine talks with them. Three into two doesn’t go, and if Max is coming in, what could the options be?
I think George’s options are a bit more straightforward. If Mercedes lets him go, he’s got two likely options – A straight swap with Red Bull, or Aston Martin. They’re the only teams I think that could make space for him, and would be an appealing enough option.
Christian Horner’s openly stated in the past that he’d be interested in Russell if he hit the open market, and he’d be comfortably the #1 free agent on the board if so. He’d be coming in as a #1 driver with likely priority status, and potential to steer a tricky Red Bull team into something decent…but if this doesn’t work, you’re the Captain of the Titanic, with previous captains Jonathan Wheatley and Adrian Newey already on the lifeboats. Ungood.
The other option to me is Aston Martin, who have allegedly put feelers out there. Aston would have to either finally move on from Lance Stroll, or buyout the remaining year of Fernando Alonso’s contract, their talisman driver as he enters his Age 45 season. It would be interesting to see what way Aston would go, and if Russell would be a good enough name for Lawrence to let his own son go. Aston aren’t great right now, but the allure of Adrian Newey and what he could do with a fresh set of regulations would certainly be tempting, not to mention being the only team on Honda power. For me, Aston Martin might be the move here.
As for Kimi Antonelli, he’s having a very solid rookie season. He’s only going to be 19 next season and he’s an arguable S-tier prospect. The question is, who would make the space for him? Red Bull would be an option, but would they immediately take Kimi over one of their own prospects, likely Arvid Lindblad? Toto Wolff being notoriously bad with getting his clients jobs isn’t exactly helpful either.
Again, would Aston Martin make space? Alpine’s an option if they’re not keen on Colapinto long-term. Would Cadillac risk it? Because beyond that, there isn’t a whole load of loose seats. You’d think Haas would keep their line up, same for Sauber and Hulkenberg/Bortoleto, McLaren and Ferrari are no-brainers, as are Williams… Kimi wouldn’t end up off the grid… would he?
Who’s your money on to win Wimbledon this year? (Men’s and Women’s singles) – Joycelyn
I need to be careful here because by the time this goes out another five seeded players will crash out!
Oh the men’s side, it’s hard not to pick anyone else between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, and I think Carlos likes Wimbledon a little bit more so I’m going to go with him on this one.
The women’s draw? Good luck, predicting them is essentially a crapshoot. Despite her Roland Garros meltdown, I think it’s got to be Aryna Sabalenka, who’s just the best all-rounder in the women’s game right now. I hate to be boring, but that’s how I’m going to roll on this one. Now wait for Sabalenka to get knocked out in the 1⁄4 ‘s and SW17 ends up a crater!
