Ah, shit, here we go again. Yeah, I had about 80% of this written before I got the word today that Crash Media Group let me go at the end of my probation period. Well this sucks.
Seriously, big thanks to Ian, Lewis Duncan, Lewis Larkam, Sam, Denny and Peter for having me, it was a pleasure to work with them all and I’ll be very grateful for the experience of being pushed outside of my comfort zone, and stretching my skills as a social media admin, editor and beyond. It’ll be valuable to me no end in the future.
Real talk, if you want to hire a decent writer, podcast editor, or could mould me into something that could work for your firm media wise – [email protected]. Thanks again for all your support.
“Ogura Expects”
Welcome to another double header of Dre’s Race Reviews. Later on, we’ll chat about F1’s return to the hills of Spielberg, but first let’s talk MotoGP at one of its marquee events – The Assen TT. We had over 100,000 in the house to witness a brand new Grand Prix winner as Ai Ogura’s brilliance is no longer a surprise, Marco Bezzecchi needs a reset, and KTM needs a new mechanic. Let’s talk about it.
Broken Bez
The indications were clear right from the off on Friday – This was an Aprilia round and no-one was touching them. They had a genuine cheat code in Sector 4 (Duikersloot through Ramshoek and the final chicane) where they were two-three tenths up on the rest of the field. It’s what Aprilia does better than anything else, the downforce they generate working well with Assen’s high-speed corners and because they are agile, they can handle the quick changes of direction too. If nothing else, Balaton Park and Brno exposed Aprilia a little bit in that they struggle a bit more with tracks where they have to stop and start. Assen being more flowing? Ka-boom.
Aprilia locked out qualifying for the first time in their history, with Jorge Martin on pole for the first time on an Aprilia, ahead of Ogura, Fernandez and Bezzecchi. Marc Marquez admitted back in Brno that Assen was going to be a game of survival, and unlike previous episodes in the Marquez mind games saga, this time he wasn’t bluffing. Seventh was the best the Spaniard could manage as Pecco Bagnaia took over as top Ducati.
In the Sprint, we saw the strengths and weaknesses of the Aprilia fleet in real time. Jorge Martin lost early ground to Raul Fernandez, who picked up the holeshot. Ai Ogura has massively improved his qualifying but can still be caught early on and he did here, dropping to third. And Marco Bezzecchi’s never been comfortable in the early laps of a Sprint and it forces him to made up ground by going to his limit, something that can and has induced errors (Remember, he’s crashed four times in 10 Sprints this season).
Fernandez did what he did so well at Mugello, front-running well and resisting the attacks from Martin to win the Sprint Race, his second of the year. Ogura came on strong at the end to make it a Trackhouse 1-2, ahead of Fabio di Giannantonio in third (Bastard Trackhouse I nicknamed it because of the similar colour scheme), and Bez was in 4th despite going red for the fastest lap of the Sprint, leaving himself too much work to do. Martin suddenly lost rear grip towards the end of the Sprint and could only hang on for fifth, with Marc Marquez promoted to sixth after Pecco Bagnaia had a final lap track limits infringement.
The race was a different matter. This time, Martin took the lead ahead of Fernandez and Ogura, Bez once again had a poor start and actually fell to fifth behind Marc Marquez for a hot minute. Through Ramshoek for the second time, it happened – Bezzecchi had a huge crash at 125mph, through the gravel trap and into the grass patch at the back of the track. He had the wind knocked out of him and he had to go to hospital for the pain, but he was discharged last night with no major injuries. Somehow. Aprilia didn’t try to defend it – They reckoned Bez had just gone too fast through T15.
At a certain point you have to ask the question – Is Bez’s head truly in this? This is the third no-score Grand Prix in a row for #72. He was a passenger in Balaton when Jorge ploughed into the crowd. But we all know he was the maker of his own demise by the double donut in Brno, and now this. I wonder – Did Marquez get into his head? He said that anything less than 37 points for Bez in Assen would be a disaster given how strong a favourite he was. Marquez says these things to stick in your mind. And in Marc’s defence, he wasn’t wrong. Bezzecchi is under pressure. He had lost 62 points to Marquez in the last two weekends heading into Assen and he was under pressure to atone for his sins. Then he sees Marquez pass him early on. Did Bez panic when he recognised the 93’s helmet? Hmm.
I don’t normally like entertaining the mental side of athletes because it’s something only trained professionals should really do, but with the rut of form that Bez is in, given he was a title contender just a month ago, to the point where he probably isn’t, he’s lost his Championship lead and now has Marquez breathing down his neck given Assen was a glorified freebie, this has been a disastrous run. Does Bez have the mental fortitude to handle a fight like this for the first time in his career? Hard to really say right now.
Golden Ai
The Aprilia’s had their own separate race at the front. Martin held the lead early on ahead of Fernandez and Ogura, but this was being set up perfectly for Ogura.
I’ve joked that if Ogura was a video game character and he had a trait, he’d have the “Second Wind” ability because his pace on used tyres is insane. It reminds me a lot of how Marc Marquez has made his lap time on the Ducati since moving there in 2024. Aprilia’s other riders can’t fathom it on the data, but Ogura has the uncanny ability to be able to nurse his rubber early on, and then push harder at the end. Marquez has been doing this for a while, easing off early so the immense rear grip of the Ducati doesn’t overload the front and make him crash. One the rear starts to step out and slide a bit, that’s when Marquez can push, using that front end feel to make him ground.
By the back half of the race, Ogura was up to the back of Martin, he passed both leading Spaniards with ease and then he didn’t look back. Just pounding tenths of a second into a gap, Ogura ended up taking the win by two whole seconds. He only led for seven laps.
It’s a special moment for a country that sadly hasn’t had much to shout out in MotoGP lately. Honda’s climbing out of the doldrums. Ogura joined Yamaha for the factory cash and they look lost at the seat right now. It had been 22 years since the last Japanese Premier class winner – Makoto Tamada back home in 2004. We were still in the 4-strokes prime, Neil Hodgson was a backmarker not a TNT Sports pundit, and everyone and their mother still had tobacco sponsors.
Japan as a biking country has fallen behind the powerhouses of Spain and Italy. I grew up as a bike fan in a world where we lost Daijiro Kato far too soon. Shinya Nakano was a runner-up in the golden age of 250’s but spent his Premier Class career largely as a midfielder, despite representing Kawasaki, Yamaha and Honda. Hiroshi Aoyama similarly was the final ever 250cc Champion in 2009, but was swept up in the CRT Rules era of the top flight and never gained a true foothold. Taka Nakagami is and was a wonderful development servant to Honda and an excellent ambassador for the series in Asia, but always fell just a little bit short of even a podium finish. Aragon 2020 was his shot from pole but he crashed at Turn 5 on the opening lap when he still had an outside chance at the title. Japan’s not been that close, until now.
Ai Ogura’s a different beast. Fun Fact – Ogura’s the first Asia Talent Cup rider to win a MotoGP race. 10 years ago as a 15-year old, he was racing alongside Somkiat Chantra and the Oncu twins. But he moved through the ranks of the Junior Moto3 series, racked up a bunch of podiums in the COVID-affected 2020 season to finish third, and then move into Moto2. His bottle came into question in 2022 when in his second season he had a golden chance to win the title but two disastrous crashes in the final two rounds had him lose out to Augusto Fernandez. Then he took a wrist injury that derailed his 2023 season.
I knew Ogura had the talent but I feared the chance had slipped him by, even more so when he made the brave decision to reject a Honda MotoGP seat in the midst of their malaise, walking away from their pipeline entirely. A brave decision, but the right one. He bounced back in 2024 with MT-Helmets MSi, and with a Boscoscuro chassis under him, won the title with three wins, and eight podiums. He took the crown in Thailand, with a fleet of the Asia Talent Cup around him, representing the opportunity that he’s brilliantly capitalised on.
I wasn’t sure Ogura was going to make it last season. A brilliant start in Thailand again derailed by classic rookie inconsistency and a fracture in his leg at the British GP harming his season of adaptability. Again, he bounced back for this 2026 season, but never did I think in just his second season he’d be a race winner, a thorn in the side of Aprilia and a genuine challenger for the World Championship. This win puts Ogura just 25 points off Jorge Martin, the new championship leader. And while his sample size is confusingly low, it’s hard not to think he can’t keep doing this. This is still just his 28th MotoGP start. If this holds up, he could be taking the #1 plate to Yamaha and not the man who’s going to be his teammate in Martin next year.
Ai Ogura is no longer a surprise. He’s become a genuine bastion of hope for Trackhouse, the customer team that can now challenge for a world title. The Japanese community, a country ravaged by poor bike sales, being overtaken by Europe off and on the track, and for those small children across South East Asia as proof of what can be done when the opportunity presents itself. And that makes me very excited indeed.
The Greatest World Championship?
So where do we stand after this? The 2026 MotoGP season has kicked ass because for me, we’ve in the unique scenario where every round has had a flashpoint, another moment that’s change the dynamic of the title picture. Every rider in the game has strengths and weaknesses. And now we have a situation where the Top 8 in the standings are covered by 63 points, two race weekends, and we’re not even half way through the year yet. Here’s how I survey the landscape:
Jorge Martin – Leader (193 Points): Who would have thought this time a year ago, when Martin was in contract dispute hell and had barely ridden his own Aprilia that he’d be leading the World Championship? He’s had a couple of rough days, being taken out in Catalunya and his game of skittles in Balaton, but beyond that, he’s merged excellent Sprinting (Second in that class, two points behind Marquez), with his Le Mans win and treating fourth as his floor otherwise. I still think he needs to find a little more on the Aprilia (He’s only had 17 weekends on this thing), but having a really high floor is helping in a series where everyone’s getting beaten up.
Marco Bezzecchi (-7): For the first time in 2026, Marco leaves a race weekend and he’s not Championship leader. I’ve already talked about the potential mental hurdles of Bez given this is his first real flirting with a World Championship, but the Sprints are also a big problem. Four DNF’s on Saturday (Eighth in that regard), and now three non-scores in a row has completely flatlined his momentum. This is a rider that screams: “I need a reset” and he’ll get one after Germany. Still the best in GP’s this season by 19 points, even if those four early wins feels like a long time ago.
Fabio Di Giannantonio (-16): Diggia is the pest who won’t go away and is still the top Ducati in this Championship, and he’s kept himself in the mix via sheer consistency. Seven times out of 10 so far this season he’s finished the Grand Prix in either third or fourth place. And with other riders making more errors or having more erratic results, it just keeps his scoreboard on tickover. I fear he needs more than his one win in Barcelona to hit his rivals where it hurts, but with eight riders at the top of the class, it could be a situation where nickelling and dime-ing your scoring could keep you in contention. Just one problem? Him leaving Ducati for KTM means he probably won’t be given frontline support.
Ai Ogura (-25): The only thing I worry about with Ogura is, the body of work really is so small and so embryonic, it’s hard to get a true read on what Ogura is. If he’s able to take the best of what we’ve seen this season (Le Mans, Brno, Assen), and combine that with actual qualifying speed, he’s going to be extremely hard to beat if he’s in his window. But there’s been so many races like Jerez, Balaton or Mugello where he gives himself too much work to do and he leaves points on the table. This for me, is MotoGP’s biggest 2026 wildcard.
Marc Marquez (-40): Who started playing Jaws music? This is the most mercurial Marquez we’ve ever seen. As I’ve been saying for a while, the reason he took Mugello on as a “damage control” race with him at his worst physically was because it set him up for Balaton as a Marquez round he could win if the bike was anywhere near the window. Same with Brno. Marquez has become the guy who is working out which rounds to play safe, and which he can attack. And look at the calendar – Germany next, an unpredictable Silverstone, then Aragon, another Marquez signature round. Everyone knows Marc is the threat and he revels in it. And Ducati are back in the window where he can bridge the gap. He’s still my pick for title, even down 40.
Raul Fernandez (-55): To think, three weeks ago, if I was a betting man I think the smart money was to put on Fernandez leaving. Apparently he’s now been offered a new deal to stay with Trackhouse. And when he’s only 55 points away from the title lead and coming off his best weekend as a MotoGP rider, why not? Fernandez is an ultra-inconsistent rider who at his best, is one of the best front-runners in the sport, but like Mugello, for every Sprint Win, there’s another round where he makes a mistake and is then fighting for eighth. But he’s on the best bike in the field and is fast enough to win on his day. That alone is worth consideration.
Pedro Acosta (-60): Pedro Acosta has had carpal tunnel for a year. He’s on a KTM that’s clearly the third best bike in a two-horse race, and said bike has a 50% chance of dying on him at the moment on current form. He’s fighting tooth and nail for every extra position he can get, while become MotoGP’s all-time leader in winless podium finishes. He’s still in this race. SOMEHOW.
Pecco Bagnaia (-63): Fun Fact? Until this weekend, Pecco was the sport’s highest scorer in the previous four weekends, with four straight GP podiums and a Sprint Win at Brno. As mentioned in that DRR, shifting weight on his Ducati to the front has given him a much needed confidence boost. A real shame another Ducati brake failure put him out of the race because P4 looked on and if that lands, we’re looking at him at -50 and a lot more interesting.
As I said on my final Crash MotoGP Podcast – Every race weekend is giving us new shit to talk about, new potential angles of inquiry, we’re learning more about Aprilia vs Ducati, Marquez vs Bezzecchi, Trackhouse potentially playing spoiler, race by race. This is a wonderful season so far for bigger picture thinking and long may it continue.
The Lightning Round
At what point does MotoGP have to park KTM? Two more technical issues for Pedro Acosta’s bike as riding over kerbing knocked out the sensors on his bike on two separate occasions. Now, as this was a new issue and was faced by Sunday, there was no issue with them racing. But we’re now at double-digit technical stoppages for this team since Barcelona. At what point do you say: “We’ve already had the worst-case scenario with Alex Marquez going to a hospital wing over Acosta’s bike cutting out in a crash that went viral, if we can’t reasonably guarantee your safety, can you participate?”
And then there’s the news that Acosta’s been battling Carpal Tunnel for the best part of a year and he’s having surgery on it tomorrow. Startling and scary to know that at times he didn’t know how much brake pressure he was applying and we nearly saw him run into the back of Marquez during their fight.
Alex Marquez. First race back from a collarbone that broke in four places AND had a huge crash on Saturday? P5. What an insane human.
Fermin Aldeguer broke his T7 vertebrae in a sickening highside on Friday. He’s a very lucky boy, shades of Wayne Rainey in that one. And Assen’s got big, chunky gravel and it’s one of the fastest tracks on the calendar. None of that is a nice mix. Again, not ideal that even Marc Marquez is like: “Change the gravel, please.”
Quite possibly the greatest Moto2 race ever seen on Sunday. Six different race leaders, a race in three parts, and an incredible final showdown between David Alonso, Manu Gonzales and Senna Agius. If you haven’t seen the whole thing, you should, but if you didn’t, enjoy one of the greatest final laps in series history.
Also, Max Quiles. Still him.
The Verdict: 6.5/10 (Decent) – Not bad, not great. Aprilia was in a different league at the front and Ogura’s win was relatively straight forward, but we got in a fun fight for fourth behind as the Ducati’s committed a civil war. I love Assen, this one wasn’t the best. Go watch the Moto2 race, it’s an AYFKM/10 on the scale. See you in Germany.
